A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the country and caused disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. Each authors two pieces that aim for neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions encompass national emblems, levies, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the concept that there could be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will win here and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has got valuable insights to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
