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Typically, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year honor adheres to a straightforward formula. It frequently functions as a form of mea culpa. Sorry we got wrong your team in our preseason predictions.

In theory, it's a clear-cut path: the coach who orchestrated the largest improvement receives the prize. In reality, it creates an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring excellent leadership or simply the biggest upset.

Yet this year's field is profoundly unique. The group of nominees is exceptionally talented. It has been the season of resurgences. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent division champions declining and longtime underperformers ascending together. In an ordinary year, Sean Payton leading the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in this wild and entertaining year, he's competing with five other outstanding coaches.

Below is how the hypothetical ballot ought to shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by signal-callers. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal environment, the QB has been afforded the chance to display his special talent. Since Week 9, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's consistent excellence. With Johnson, Williams has become increasingly decisive, less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan instead of freelancing. It is an offense built entirely in the coach's vision: a physical ground attack, a steady dose of play-action and a innovative passing attack that springs wide receiver targets consistently. Williams has taken advantage. And when easy reads haven't been there, he's been able to spin big plays out of nothing.

The coach came to the Bears with a specific offensive philosophy. Virtually every bet – rebuilding the trenches, highlighting the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a timing-based passer – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer yet for a coach who entered the organization with the level of pressure he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the top candidate on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme dork but the type of leader that can breathe new life into an organization.

In a ordinary season, he would be the runaway favorite. But this is not a normal year!

Where Johnson's case runs a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and takeaways are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can focus on creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offense is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. With a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be several victories behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is established for long-term success. But he falls just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar spot to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time leader who has masterminded a swift resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more notably, Coen has mastered the off-field aspects, which wasn't a certainty after his early public appearances and some of his offseason moves.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed their staff with the ideal staff blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen trusted first-timers. Starting with the leader himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That kind of approach is exciting on paper, but often fails in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a new job in real-time. Yet he has pulled the entire group and all elements into sync.

Following an initial hot start, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the track. A midseason collapse had the Jags wobbling again. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. He did not. Rather, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run plays and started hunting reliable ones. Coen refocused the offense around key players and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's number three seed. Coen gets the tiniest deduction in the standings because he took over a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year argument has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB move.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative play-caller might have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it shaped it. Through the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has fallen away after that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the second half of the season, placing him just one place ahead of other QBs.

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